Well if it is not enough to be a pessimist, the idea that a recession is coming in the Web 2.0 world has been the topic of discussion for a number of months now. There are a number of well respected web sites talking about a coming recession, and trying to work out the scenarios that will play out in the web 2.0 world.

There are a great many technology people wrapped up in making neat things, and working on the advertising as revenue model. That has lead to an influx of web sites that all use advertising to make ends meet. Low budget web sites with an average population uses Google, yahoo or other web advertising systems, while high flyers most likely will use FM, or other targeted systems, or sell advertising directly.

When a recession hits web 2.0, the advertising budgets are going to be one of the first things to go. That means many of the economic models that have been built around advertising are going to crumble. Advertising pulls money, economic underpinning fails. Many companies will cease to exist, or move into smaller modes to accommodate the lack of cash influx.

Many programmers will start working in the contractor field like they did in 2001 through 2003 until we start building on the next cycle.

The pessimism though in the technology field is palpitable at this point. A VC has their take, not as a matter of it, but more of a matter of when. While Silicon Alley insider has two articles here and here covering the same basic ideas, even we have written about it in the past as well.

There will be differences between the collapse of Web 1.0 and the collapse of web 2.0 though that needs to be taken into consideration.

Web 3.0 is already practically defined, with people working on the next evolution of the internet, some companies’ leapfrogged web 2.0 altogether. This means that there is a goal already set on what things should look like at the end of the storm. Those companies are already lean, and already working on a next generation product. If they survive, they will be at the forefront of “what’s big next”.

Smaller web sites, smaller blogs, that are already self-sufficient and not through advertising will also survive. Sites that are dependent upon advertising to make ends meet will be the hardest influenced by the downturn, but this will also give smaller sites the ability to adopt web 3.0 standards, as well as keep on building audience through a downturn.

We also will not have the crippling losses on the stock market; Web 2.0 has been defined by M&A activity, not by IPO’s. That will save many people money in the longer run, and not have as negative an influence on the economy as a whole.

It will be the people that are already self-sufficient that will rise to the top of the Web 3.0 phenomena, while larger companies will get bought out, sell themselves on eBay, or close their doors.

A downturn and weeding might not be that bad a thing, people and companies worked out viable survival methods five years ago. It might be time to dust them off again.