Profy no we are not sure yet that is ok too
Disaster planning is all about making sure that when the big bust comes, there is some way to recover from it. No advertising dollars are not going to dry up, but what will happen is that as people bail out from blogging that runs ads, or people get more discriminatory about the domains they buy to shove ads on to them, or as the blog networks or other networks fail, there will less property for running ads.
People might actually see a higher return on their ads if the number of web sites goes down because stores, companies, blogs, and others shut down and stop carrying the ads. But there will not be a doomsday when it comes to advertising on the internet. Advertising income based companies are going to have a hard time in the future, but that also all depends on how aggressive they get flogging advertising on their web sites. Or how annoying they get about putting advertising on their web sites, and what the general user experience is going to look like.
The general agreement here is that when times go bad, you do increase your ad spending, like you said right here. Companies that get this will do what they can to remain in front, and show value for dollar. I would expect an increase in Wal-Mart ads, Target Ads, and other ads, but there are also going to be some last gasp desperate save the company ad campaigns that are going to show off every single bad advertising decision that a company can make.
The reverse of this process is that there is also going to be an increase in click fraud. As desperate blog networks or desperate web sites start doing anything to get people to click on those ads to make a penny. That will further reduce the number of web sites carrying ads, because all the ad networks are aggressive about stopping click fraud. In a recession, they are going to be even more aggressive about this because they need to show value for dollar to the advertisers as well.
The real doomsday scenario would be an increase in adware, or cool web 2.0 tools that essentially are adware in the longer run. That is the real worry that advertising is going to be more aggressive to get more clicks leading to more sales. We might see a resurgence in adware or annoy the#!@(# out of people programs. We might see toolbars that do things we don’t want them to do proliferate as companies chase dollars. It has been a while since the adware business has had an opportunity like this.
With all the neat things that Web 2.0 does, adding an adware component to everything that the company does might end up being the next big thing. The problem is that buyers are going to remember for a little bit what kinds of aggressive tactics that companies do to try to get out in front. That might end up having lasting and longer term repercussions once the immediate crisis is over with.
Tags: ads, ad, advertising, profy, answer back, aggressive, adware, trouble ahead
Thank you for the reply to my post, you have shared some aspects I did not even think about myself - like click frauds increased during a recession. This does sound true but I believe this will be yet another indication of which online businesses stay in the businesses and which will go broke. And those that can’t offer anything truly valuable to their potential advertisers, will obviously have to go eventually - making room for healthier websites.